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Climate and cryosphere: subregional workshop for the sustainable future of Central Asia
Held in Almaty, the workshop brought together representatives from Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, who collaborated on recommendations for the Diagnostic Analysis (DA) of the cryosphere. The event was organized within the framework of the GEF-UNDP-UNESCO project, "Strengthening the resilience of Central Asian countries by enabling regional cooperation to assess glacio-nival systems to develop integrated methods for sustainable development and adaptation to climate change", following the methodology of the GEF International Waters strategic action program.
National-Level Approaches
The workshop gathered representatives from Central Asian ministries and agencies responsible for environmental and water resources alongside international and local cryosphere experts and data management specialists.
It began with presentations from each country, covering key components of the cryosphere—snow cover, glaciers, and permafrost—and their impacts on water resources, ecosystems, and regional economies. These presentations provided a shared foundation for further discussions and work on recommendations.
Regional Cryosphere Variations
The Central Asian cryosphere is highly diverse, shaped by each country's geographic and climate characteristics. In Tajikistan, glaciers make up a significant portion of the natural landscape and play a vital role in regional water supply. In contrast, in Kazakhstan, glaciers cover less than 0.1% of the territory. In the Kyrgyz Republic, permafrost spans about a third of the country, while in Uzbekistan, it is rare, and in Turkmenistan, it is absent. These differences highlight the importance of exchanging experience and data among countries, allowing for approaches adapted to each unique region.
Climate and Cryosphere Change Scenarios
A major topic on the first day was a presentation by Dr. Martina Barandun, Senior Researcher at the University of Fribourg, who shared results from collaborative work with national partners on cryosphere change scenarios through the end of this century. Key projections include:
Due to a prolonged melting season, snow cover in the region is expected to decrease by 10% every decade.
Even under the most favorable conditions, each catchment will lose at least 25% of its ice, and some basins may lose glaciers entirely. The Syr Darya basin will likely experience greater impacts than the Amu Darya basin.
These scenarios underscore the significant long-term impacts that climate change is projected to have on the region’s water resources and water management.
Developing Recommendations and Next Steps
The workshop’s second day centered on interactive sessions where participants worked on developmental scenarios at national and regional levels. Using the presented climate models, they created two possible outcomes: one based on a business-as-usual model and another incorporating recommended adaptation measures. The outcomes of these discussions will form the basis for DA recommendations and the development of national and subregional action plans on the cryosphere.
