Early Warning Systems
Each year, natural hazards cause significant loss of life and set back the economic and social development of affected countries by years, if not decades. The 2022 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction highlights that our societal, political, and economic choices are contributing to an increase in disasters, which are intensified by climate change and inadequate risk management. By 2030, 1.5 environmental disasters are expected to occur per day worldwide.
Most disasters are caused by earthquakes, floods, tsunamis, or droughts. They affect areas in which three quarters of the world's population live. The impact of hazards is unequally distributed and disproportionately affects the most vulnerable communities. Early Warning Systems are essential to protect these vulnerable communities, to promote resilience, and to achieve the global development agenda. People-centred, end-to-end, multi-hazard early-warning systems can help minimize the harm to people, assets, and livelihoods by triggering early action that is well prepared and tested.
Early Warning Systems are "an integrated system of hazard monitoring, forecasting and prediction, disaster risk assessment, communication and preparedness activities systems and processes that enable individuals, communities, governments, businesses, and others to take timely action to reduce disaster risks in advance of hazardous events."
Ensuring every person on Earth is protected by Early Warning Systems
However, one-third of the world's population still lacks early warning systems, primarily in least developed countries and Small Island Developing States. In 2022, UN Secretary General António Guterres announced that the United Nations will take the lead in ensuring that every person on Earth is protected by early warning systems by 2027. UNESCO, a pioneer in the design and implementation of early warning systems for multiple natural hazards, particularly tsunamis, is working with Member States to reach this goal.
In the last decades, 91Â鶹¹ú²ú¾«Æ·×ÔÅÄ expanded its early warning systems’ capacity to include other types of risks, including floods, droughts, wildfires, and melting glaciers. Increasing the availability of multi-hazard early warning systems and disaster risk information is also one of the seven global targets set by The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015-2030). UNESCO is actively assisting countries to reach the Framework’s targets and implements projects to increase society's resilience to natural hazards around the world.
Changing climate patterns are responsible for the increasing number of floods in certain regions and the prevalence of droughts in others, particularly in Africa, where climate change contributes to land degradation and desertification. In turn, arid conditions often lead to wildfires, which occur along urban wilderness interfaces. These fires cause heavy property and biological damage, as well as leaving affected areas susceptible to floods and landslides.
91Â鶹¹ú²ú¾«Æ·×ÔÅÄ been engaged in drylands research since the 1950s. It emphasizes the need for a developmental approach rather than crisis management through its international science programme, notably the Man and the Biosphere (MAB) Programme, the Intergovernmental Hydrological Programme (IHP) and the Local and Indigenous Knowledge Systems programme (LINKS). These programmes aim to reduce communities’ vulnerability to flooding, droughts, and wildfires by emphasizing the interdependence and need to preserve cultural and biological diversity, as well as the integrated management of water resources.
Geohazards
On average, about 50,000 earthquakes occur each year as the Earth's tectonic plates shift and adjust, with varying intensity. Some release an awesome amount of energy and can be devastating, others are barely noticeable. While some areas are known to be earthquake-prone, very little is known beyond broad indications of where and when tremors may occur. Earthquakes happen suddenly and allow little time to evacuate. Nonetheless, there are solutions available to reduce their impacts.
For example, over the last few decades, 91Â鶹¹ú²ú¾«Æ·×ÔÅÄ supported the establishment of international, regional, and national centres to record, exchange, and analyse earthquake data. The International Platform for Reducing Earthquake Disaster (IPRED) fosters sharing the latest seismological and earthquake engineering knowledge to reduce communities' vulnerability.
Ensuring that infrastructure and buildings are earthquake-resistant is essential to save live, as collapsing structures are responsible for most casualties during earthquakes. Through the platform, UNESCO supports the development and implementation of earthquake-resistant building codes. UNESCO and IPRED have also gathered considerable data on earthquake behaviour and impacts through many post-disaster reconnaissance missions.
Tsunamis and coastal hazards
Globally, over 700 million people in low-lying coastal areas and Small Island Developing States are exposed to extreme sea level events, including tsunamis. Tsunamis, or seismic sea waves, are a series of travelling waves of extremely long length and period, usually generated by disturbances associated with earthquakes occurring below or near the ocean floor. Volcanic eruptions, submarine landslides, and coastal rock falls can also generate tsunamis, as can a large meteorite impacting the ocean. These waves may reach enormous dimensions and travel across entire ocean basins with little loss of energy.
While tsunamis are rare, their impacts can be destructive. Damage and destruction from tsunamis is the direct result of three factors: inundation, wave impact on structures, and erosion. Because of their destructiveness, tsunamis have important impacts on the human, social, and economic sectors of societies.
However, not all submarine earthquakes result in destructive tsunamis, and they cannot be detected using seismological observations alone. Deep-sea pressure sensors and satellite-linked buoys must supplement these observations, and international cooperation is key to develop effective Tsunami Warning Systems.
In 1965, the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO established the first regional tsunami warning system in the Pacific, as well as the International Tsunami Information Center (ITIC) dedicated to improving tsunami preparedness for all Pacific Ocean nations.
In 2005, UNESCO extended its activities on tsunami early warning by initiating a global warning system for ocean-related hazards in close cooperation with other UN bodies. The ITIC now provides technical and capacity building assistance to Member States for tsunami warning and mitigation systems in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans, the Caribbean and Mediterranean Seas, and other seas, and supports Tsunami Information Centres in other regions.
An early warning system can be effective only when the population is well aware of tsunami risk and knows what to do in case of an emergency. IOC-UNESCO continues to play a critical role in protecting lives by helping Member States assess tsunami risk, implement tsunami early warning systems, and educate communities at risk. IOC-UNESCO is also implementing the Tsunami Ready programme to improve coastal community preparedness for tsunamis using set standards and indicators.