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Professor Giorgio Brunello, Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, University of Padova. 
Professor Lorenzo Rocco, Professor of Economics, Department of Economics and Management, University of Padova. 
Matthias Eck, Section of Education for Inclusion and Gender Equality, UNESCO.

Over halfway through the implementation period of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, 128 million boys and 122 million girls are out of school, and 57% of the world’s children lack basic skills (UNESCO-UIS, 2023; Gust, Hanushek and Woessmann, 2024). Girls and boys are affected differently by the learning crisis. Girls have more difficulty accessing education and are more likely than boys to be out of school at the primary level. Meanwhile, boys are at greater risk of repeating grades, failing to progress and complete their education, and not learning while in school (UNESCO, 2022).

To address some of the impacts of these trends and where they could be heading, 91Â鶹¹ú²ú¾«Æ·×ÔÅÄ recently examined the private, fiscal and social costs of children leaving school early and not acquiring basic skills, including socio-emotional skills (). The economic costs are borne by individuals (private costs), as well as by the government (fiscal costs), while those borne by society (social costs) include costs to both individuals and the government. The  report presents for the first time these costs globally, regionally and for 20 selected countries. 

The report proposes two scenarios for 2030. In the first scenario, the world could follow the same pattern of high early school leaving rates and low educational achievement. The second scenario proposes a very radical change. What if we made a significant investment in education, ensuring that all children and young people are in school and acquire basic skills? The report estimates the cost difference between these two scenarios – in other words, the economic losses of not investing in education for all. 

What are the consequences of not investing in education for all? If no change-course action is taken, by 2030, globally, the annual cost to society of children who leave school early will reach US$6 trillion. Likewise, the annual cost of having children lacking minimum levels of basic skills[1] is US$10 trillion. These costs are more than the combined annual gross domestic product (GDP) of France and Japan, two high-income countries (OCDE, 2023). High-income countries bear the highest absolute costs because of their higher per capita GDP.

Yet, the losses are not borne equally across all economies. Sub-Saharan African economies currently bear the highest cost in terms of percentage of GDP, amounting to a 19% loss of GDP in 2030 if children leave school early and 26% if children fail to acquire basic skills. Additionally, Sub-Saharan Africa has the greatest potential to reap economic benefits – both macro benefits and individual returns – from improvements in access to, participation in and quality of education.

Collectively, these costs could be seen as higher for boys than girls globally. This is mainly because while girls are more likely to be out of primary school than boys, more boys than girls are out of school globally, and the share of boys with less-than-basic skills is higher. By contrast, in sub-Saharan Africa, the cost is higher for girls. In some contexts, girls still face the worst forms of exclusion. Elsewhere, in Afghanistan, for instance, if the government’s current suspension of girls and young women’s access to secondary education remains in place, by 2030 the absolute cost to individuals of girls leaving school early could reach US$1.5 billion.

The growing emphasis on socio-emotional skills in education highlights the recognition of their increasingly significant role. The research shows that in the 57 countries with available data, the loss of GDP due to low levels of socio-emotional skills by 2030 will be as high as US$7 trillion, corresponding to 19% of annual GDP of the 57 countries.[2]Students’ socio-emotional skills are not only essential in themselves, but they are also significant predictors of academic achievement.

Investing in quality education is a high return strategy for economic development. A 10% reduction in the shares of early school leavers and children with less than basic skills increases world annual GDP by 1-2 percentage points.Failure to invest in education traps economies in a status of low levels of education and productivity. 

In this research, the terminology ‘social costs’ is to be distinguished from the term ‘nonmonetary costs’. The non-monetary costs of early school leaving and low educational attainment are significant, affecting various aspects of society. Without action, the increase in early pregnancies may be 69% higher globally. The global rate of homicides could be 57% higher due to children having less than basic skills, and there would be a higher incidence of young adults not in employment, education or training. These impacts disproportionately affect young women. 

The world is at risk of losing enormously if we fail to fulfill the right to education and allocate the necessary financial resources to achieve it. Children and youth leaving school early without minimum levels of basic skills have huge cost implications for all societies around the world –– costs that they cannot and should not have to afford. Governments and partners need to urgently step-up investment in education to ensure that all girls and boys complete a full cycle of good quality basic education by 2030, which would avoid the huge private, fiscal and social cost between the two scenarios.